Gary Cokins

Gary Cokins

SAS
Gary Cokins (Cornell BS IE/OR, 1971; Northwestern Kellogg MBA 1974) is an internationally recognized expert, speaker, and author in advanced cost management and enterprise performance and risk management systems. He is a Principal of global business advisory services involved with analytics-based performance management solutions with SAS and can be reached at gary.cokins@sas.com .
  • 0 comments 435 reads
    Posted on 2012-05-22

    Which is worse? Being wrong or being confused?

    Let’s start with some definitions.  To make a wrong decision means you were mistaken and erroneous. Your decision was incorrect for the problem to be solved or opportunity that could have been realized. (There is also an immoral, unethical, and illegal connotation; but that is a different variation of a poor choice. To be confused means you are baffled, bewildered, and perplexed. You cannot be positioned to make a correct decision because your thinking is muddled and clouded.

    Embracing analytics can resolve both conditions.

    Cultural issues related to wrong choices

    An example of being wrong might be if you purchased a large top load clothes washing machine that did not fit in the space that a traditional front loading washer would have fit. Using the same example, being confused would be if you did not understand the differences between the...

  • 0 comments 352 reads
    Posted on 2012-05-15

    Choice covers both the capacity to control people and events, and an underlying belief in the possibility of such control. Being able to rule your environment gives power to self-determination, even for babies. In a study, researchers attached strings to the arms of infants “as young as four months.” When they moved their arms, music played. The babies grew “sad and angry” when researchers removed the strings and they could no longer make music play, though music continued sporadically.

    Wanting to choose comes naturally, though it isn’t linked to any distinct biological advantage. Without choice, as zoo animals show, even if someone else’s decisions set you up in luxury, you won’t be happy. Having influence on control makes people happiest. A nursing home let some patients decide when to watch movies and which plants they wanted. After six months, those who had more perceived choice “were happier and more alert” and, it turned out, “were less likely to have died.”

    ...

  • 0 comments 569 reads
    Posted on 2012-05-08

    One of the frustrations I experience is when managers or analysts share with me that their organizations tried to implement progressive management methods, and they either failed or abandoned them. A prominent example is an unsuccessful attempt to implement activity-based costing to measure and manage costs and profit levels of products, services, channels and customers. Other enterprise performance management examples include risk management, customer analytics, enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems and the balanced scorecard.

    What causes these failures or the quick loss of interest?

    Experiencing failure is a foundation for success

    What we are discussing here is a topic few wish to discuss – failure. I advocate having a positive view of failure and leveraging disappointing or botched implementations of an advanced...

  • 0 comments 319 reads
    Posted on 2012-05-01

    I recently presented a keynote presentation at the annual conference of the joint Ohio chapters of the Institute of Management Accountants. I shared the stage with Mike Willis, Partner, PricewaterhouseCoopers and the founder of and Chairman Emeritus of XBRL International. Mike posed this question to make an important point:  

    Two trains are on the same track 600 miles apart traveling towards each other.  One train is traveling west at 50 mph and the other train is traveling east at 20 mph.  How long will it take for the trains to impact each other? 

    1. 8 hours, 30 minutes
    2. 8 hours, 34 minutes
    3. 8 hours, 42 minutes

    The narrow correct answer is B. But an experienced analyst thinking out-of-the-box would ask (1) Who would ride on a train traveling 20 mph?  and (2) Who would put two trains on a collision course?

    Framing a problem...

  • 0 comments 437 reads
    Posted on 2012-04-23

    I take risks as a blogger to use blog titles, like this one, that does not indicate the blog’s topic. So many readers will likely not read them. In addition, some of my blog do not contain “keywords” like business analytics for website search engines to detect and drive more traffic. That further reduces the circulation of my blogs. However, I know I have a substantial readership following on this and other websites from my page-count statistics, so this blog is for you.

    What are key success ‘messages’ for business analytics?

    My blog title is a quote from the famous hotelier, Conrad Hilton (1887-1979), who was the founder of the premier Hilton hotel chain (and great-grandfather of Paris Hilton). On the USA’s television program The Tonight Show with host Johnny Carson (who hosted 1962-1992 prior to Jay Leno’s era), Carson interviewed an aged Hilton as a guest. Carson asked him to reflect on...

  • 0 comments 419 reads
    Posted on 2012-04-17

    I define Enterprise Performance Management (EPM) much broader than its narrowly perceived view as a CFO initiative with a bunch of dashboards. Under EPM’s broad umbrella are these component methodologies: (1) profitability analysis; (2) forecasting, planning, and budgeting; (3) customer intelligence; (4) process improvement; and (5) strategy execution. The last one, strategy execution, relies on strategy maps, strategic scorecards (with KPIs), and operational dashboards (with PIs).

     The creators of the strategy map and balanced scorecard concept, Professors Robert S. Kaplan and David P. Norton, recently wrote an article, “The future of the Balanced Scorecard.” I have excerpted below their five futures expansions. The two that caught my attention are the integration with enterprise risk management (ERM) and with...

  • 0 comments 383 reads
    Posted on 2012-04-10

    When I read an article written by Eric Garland, a strategic analyst, I was disheartened. Garland recently quit his job of 15 years as an analyst, and he expressed his frustration with decision makers in an article published in the Atlantic titled, “How So-Called Strategic Intelligence Actually Makes Us Dumber.” What is your reaction to this excerpt from his article?

    “I am not quitting this industry for lack of passion, as I still believe – more than ever – in using good information and sophisticated analytical techniques to decode the future and make decisions. The problem is, the market for intelligence is now largely about providing information that makes decision makers feel better, rather than bringing true insights about risk and opportunity. Our future is now being planned by...

  • 0 comments 552 reads
    Posted on 2012-03-27

    How long can an organization survive if it keeps making mistakes? How competitive can a company be if its decisions are bad ones? Who wants to have their organization continue to perpetuate making decisions with flawed, misleading, or incomplete information?

    Organizations in a “no fact” zone

    I continue to be intrigued that almost half of the 25 companies that passed the rigorous tests to be listed in the once famous book by Tom Peters and Robert Waterman, In Search of Excellence, today either no longer exist, are in bankruptcy, or have performed poorly. What happened in the 25 years since the book was published? Ponder this question, “How many of the original Standard and Poors (S&P) 500 list originally created in 1957 are on that list today?” Research from Professor Gary Biddle of the University of Hong Kong reported the answer is 74, just 15%. And of those 74, only 12 have outperformed the S&P index average. Pretty grim. A few years...

  • 0 comments 577 reads
    Posted on 2012-03-20

    The combination of technology and analytics software is solving problems in ways that only a few years ago were unimaginable.

    Technology’s contribution is with the Internet and high performance computing (HPC). Analytics’ contribution to this marriage with technology is – to keep this simple – the math. It is the equations and algorithms. Here is a practical example of the union involving automobile traffic congestion in cities.

    San Francisco’s automobile street parking solution

    Every major city, like New York or Paris, is experiencing high automobile traffic density. Crude solutions to limit the number of cars entering city boundaries, such as in London, include pricey city entry tolls and restrictive car tag registration fees. There are not much analytics involved there. But that type of controlled city access does not solve the aggravating problem of insufficient – often non-existent –...

  • 0 comments 478 reads
    Posted on 2012-03-13

    I refer to myself as a “ready-fire-aim” kind of guy. Although this is an exaggeration, it makes the point that I stop analyzing when the information is good enough to gain insights or make decisions.

    I am an advocate of the Pareto principle that is also known as the 80–20 rule – the law of the vital few versus the trivial many. It states that for many events, roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes.

    My concern is that analysts using statistics and analytics require excessive detail, accuracy, and precision. These types of analysts are perfectionists. Too often organizations over-plan and under-execute. During the investigation phase of a problem or opportunity, they can have brain freeze.

    Can you read this?

    I can’t blveiee that I can aulaclty unsdnaterd what I am rdanieg. The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid, aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, is it...