AT&T’s Day in Court: What it Will Take to Win — or Defeat — The Merger

U.S. Department of Justice moves to stop the AT&T/T-Mobile merger — is that a PR victory for the deal’s opponents and PR failure for AT&T? Not really, and rushing to that conclusion reveals a misunderstanding of how the DoJ operates.

Unlike the Federal Communications Commission and Capitol Hill, the DoJ — one of the two regulatory bodies responsible for reviewing the merger — operates behind closed doors. You can’t schedule an appointment to meet with these guys. You can’t lobby them. They may call you in for questioning, but that’s as far as any relationship goes. Up until the moment the DoJ takes action, their intentions are a mystery to the public. Ergo, claiming a PR victory from the DoJ’s decision against the merger, or if you’re in AT&Ts’ camp, blaming PR for what happened, is guesswork.

This week, the New York Times’ Steven Davidoff offers insights on how AT&T might still salvage the merger. Part of of the mix he says AT&T must consider includes “a big public relations push to convince regulators.” True enough (for both sides), but what matters most is what gets pushed.

As AT&T prepares for its day in court later this month, many observers predict its willingness to offer major concessions that whittle away at the DoJ’s concerns over the merger creating undue market concentration.

All fine and well, but the winner in this fight will be whomever gets to and harps on the core issue: economic impact on the customer. If the merger is approved, what will happen to mobile rates — will they go up or down?  It’s surprising that neither side has funded an independent economic study of the merger’s financial impact on businesses and consumers, or if they have, done any effective PR on such findings.

Once that’s done: Case closed.